Jan van Eck suggested that analysts have been overcomplicating recent Bitcoin price action, arguing that the four-year cycle has been the main driver holding prices down.

The price of Bitcoin is close to its bottom, according to VanEck CEO Jan van Eck, pointing to the winding down of the four-year cycle.

Speaking with CNBC on Monday, van Eck said his firm expects Bitcoin (BTC) to gradually start picking up this year, arguing that the four-year halving cycle has been the primary driver of price over the past few months, as opposed to anything related to BTC’s fundamentals.

“Our view coming into 2026 is that Bitcoin is governed by [...] limited supply at 21 million, and the halving cycle where the Bitcoin miners who run the network get paid half the number of Bitcoin every four years,” he said, adding:

“There's been an investing cycle, Bitcoin goes up three years in a row, goes down pretty massively in that fourth year. 2026 is that fourth year. So that’s why we are in a Bitcoin bear market. So I think we can overcomplicate it. Now I think we are making a bottom.”

The four-year crypto cycle has been a hot topic of debate overt he last year, with crypto analysts split over whether the chart pattern is still applicable today given the level of institutional adoption and crypto market maturity.

Arguments against the cycle include macro demand from exchange-traded funds, the weakening USD, and positive regulatory developments.

Jan van Eck’s comments come as the price of BTC is up 2.6% over the past 24 hours and is trading at $68,400 at the time of writing, and 7.6% over the past seven days, according to data from CoinGecko.

Related: Bitcoin slide slowing, but bear market still in play: Analysts

The crypto pump has coincided with growing geopolitical tensions, after the United States and Israel initiated air strikes on Iran, which has since prompted Iran to launch strikes in response against Israel.

Van Eck speculated that Bitcoin’s recent recovery may be partly sparked by the conflict, with crypto payment rails serving as a key tool to move funds outside of banks in times of economic uncertainty.  

“When one thinks forward to some sort of solution with Iran, how are you gonna move money around? And I do think it's a very, very crypto-friendly region, UAE, Dubai, everything,” he said, adding:  

“So it could be that if we wanted to move money to good actors, we would wanna use crypto payment rails as opposed to going through decrepit Iranian banks that we don’t control.”