The Bank of Japan is expected to increase its benchmark interest rates on Friday, a historically bearish signal for riskier assets like Bitcoin.
Bitcoin
could face a continued correction toward the $70,000 level if the Bank of Japan (BoJ) proceeds with an expected interest-rate hike on Dec. 19, according to multiple macro-focused analysts.
Key takeaways:
BoJ tightening could pressure Bitcoin by draining global liquidity.
Macro and technical signals align around a $70,000 downside target.
BOJ hikes preceded 20-30% BTC price corrections
Every BOJ rate hike since 2024 coincided with Bitcoin price drawdowns exceeding 20%, according to data highlighted by AndrewBTC.
In an X post on Saturday, the analyst highlighted BTC declines of roughly 23% in March 2024, 26% in July 2024, and 31% in January 2025.
BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView/AndrewBTC
AndrewBTC warned that similar downside risks could emerge again if the BOJ raises rates on Friday. A recent Reuters poll showed a majority of economists forecasting another rate increase at the December policy meeting.
The thesis centered on Japan’s role in global liquidity.
In the past, BOJ rate hikes strengthened the Japanese yen, making it more expensive to borrow and invest in riskier assets. This often forced traders to unwind so-called “yen carry trades,” reducing liquidity across global markets.
As liquidity tightened, Bitcoin came under pressure, as investors cut leverage and reduced exposure during risk-off periods.
Analyst EX said BTC will “dump below $70,000” under these macroeconomic conditions.
Source: X
Bitcoin bear flag targets same $70,000 area
Bitcoin’s daily chart also flashed technical warning signs, with price action consolidating inside a classic bear flag formation.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
The pattern formed after BTC’s sharp breakdown from the $105,000–$110,000 region in November, followed by a narrow upward-sloping consolidation channel. Such structures typically signal temporary pauses before trend continuation.
Related: BTC OGs selling covered calls is the main culprit suppressing price: Analyst
A confirmed breakdown below the flag’s lower trendline could trigger another leg lower, with the measured move pointing toward the $70,000–$72,500 zone. Multiple analysts, including James Check and Sellén, shared similar downside targets in the past month.
