Bitcoin’s pullback slightly increased the chance of it hitting $75,000 in the first quarter of the year, but the likelihood is still under 10%, says Derive’s Sean Dawson.
Bitcoin has a slight chance of dropping nearly 26% in the first quarter of 2025 to around $75,000, a crypto analyst says — but other crypto commentators are less confident about a fall.
Derive head of research Dr. Sean Dawson said in a Jan. 28 markets report viewed by Cointelegraph that the probability of Bitcoin falling below $75,000 by March “has risen to 9.2%, up from 7.2% in the last 24 hours.”
BTC faced volatility amid broad market downturn
Still, Bitcoin moving closer to $100,000 has slightly bumped that probability.
Dawson based this on Bitcoin’s at-the-money implied volatility spiking from 52% to 76%, a sign of increased demand for put options “to protect against downside risk.”
Bitcoin dropped 6.5% on Jan. 27 to $97,906 amid a broader crypto and stock market decline triggered by the release of China-based artificial intelligence project DeepSeek’s latest AI model.
Bitcoin has since bounced back above the $100,000 mark, trading at $102,100 at the time of publication, per CoinMarketCap data.
Dawson said the slight uptick in the probability of Bitcoin heading back toward $75,000 “reflects a shift in market sentiment toward bearishness as traders adjust to rising uncertainty.”
The last time Bitcoin was trading near $75,000 was on Nov. 8, just three days after Donald Trump’s US presidential victory. It then went on a month-long rally that saw BTC reach the long-awaited $100,000 price level for the first time on Dec. 5.
BTC tied to “broader macroeconomic shifts”
Bitfinex analysts noted in a Jan. 27 market report that Bitcoin’s drop, following a broader stock market downturn, reinforces its correlation with the wider market.
“Bitcoin's price is less a standalone reflection of its market fundamentals and more tied to broader macroeconomic shifts, particularly in risk sentiment,” the analysts said.
Related: Absence of Bitcoin ‘panic selling’ suggests BTC drop below $98K is a short-term blip: Analyst
“In our view, Bitcoin is no longer just a digital asset playing by its own rules — but is now firmly tethered to the broader risk asset landscape,” they added.
Meanwhile, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicts that Bitcoin could potentially pull back toward the $70,000 to $75,000 range, a move that may trigger a “mini financial crisis.”
According to Hayes, this could lead to a “resumption of money printing” that will send Bitcoin’s price to $250,000 by the end of 2025.
